The BBC Trust’s interim verdict on the BBC’s Project Canvas open IPTV proposal is due on Monday. We asked Andrew Burke, who devised and ran the BT Vision IPTV service as CEO of BT (NYSE: BT) Entertainment, what Canvas might do for the UK IPTV ecology, which, unlike world-leading France, is languishing with fewer than half a million subscribers. Andrew is now CEO of AIM-listed set-top box maker Amino Technologies. He was previously COO of News Corp.‘s eVentures VC arm and founder-CEO of News International’s Tiscali progenitor LineOne...

BT Vision pioneered the hybrid set-top box model by taking Freeview and adding on-demand programming through an integrated IPTV connection. This should be a compelling combination but - due to technology, content and marketing challenges - the service is yet to realise its potential. The BBC is looking to swoop in, hijack the model, define the platform, deliver the content and market it using the same machine that made Freeview such a success. For the first time, Sky may find itself outclassed by the infinite flexibility that a broadband-connected Freeview clone could deliver.

There’s a strong likelihood Canvas will go ahead but, first, the BBC must satisfy these criteria…

—It must enable, not control, the new platform. A gatekeeper approach will cause too many conflicts.
—It should assist in the platform definition and not dictate it.  The approach must be open, transparent and flexible enough to adopt ‘best of breed’ technologies.
—The BBC must allow its content to appear on all competing platforms. The UK public has already paid for it – every which way they wish to consume it.
—It has to embrace all the various business models - even if it is not in their culture to do so.

Assuming the BBC can keep at arms-length, Project Canvas will make significant waves. So what does the future hold for UK IPTV? Here are some scenarios…

—Let a thousand boxes bloom: A number of manufacturers will start to amke the enhanced Freeview and Freesat set-top boxes and sell them through retail outlets. The first wave is simply an Electronic Program Guide (EPG) that displays broadcast content schedules two weeks ahead and catch-up content one week behind for all the BBC channels.  Simple proposition, but massively compelling - it starts to sell in large numbers. ITV (LSE: ITV) and Channel 4 will make their content available on the same platform and in the same format. Variants will start to appear with movie content available – through operators like Netflix or through variants of service provider solutions like BT Vision.

—Say goodbye to net neutrality: ISPs will start to edge-cache all the popular content to reduce the burden on their networks and improve the experience for their customers. The cost of the caching will be borne partly by the broadcasters. Quality-assured connections will begin to appear, funded by an additional broadband subscription fee. Half of the UK public takes this option.

—Everyone will love Freeview-on-steroids: Consumers will buy more and more Canvas-compliant boxes as they move their existing box to a second room and start to rely on the IPTV Freeview for main viewing. The winning products will be the ones which deliver the best user experience – speed, quality and ease of use. Freesat becomes ever more popular as the HD service complements the increasingly ubiquitous large flat screens. Virgin Media (NSDQ: VMED) will mirror this revolution with similar services available on its high-speed cable network and will, through ADSL IPTV, be able to launch a Freeview variant for customers outside its cable areas.

—The telly will be changed forever: The UK public’s viewing habits will transition from being dominated by broadcast to by on-demand. In effect, everyone will have access to the ultimate network PVR and they will just love it. Services will start to become personalised, social and contextual and new commercial models will appear that exploit TV-commerce, applications-on-demand, voting, rating, content sharing and portability.

—Sky will play catch-up: Sky will react as it is seriously squeezed by both Freeview and Freesat. It will enable the broadband connection in its new HD boxes and begin to offer BBC iPlayer on-demand. It will argue with ITV and C4 for a while but will eventually get their shows, too. It will then make the decision to swap out all its old digital boxes for ones with broadband connections – a replay of the analogue-to-digital strategy in the late 90s.

All being well, the word “IPTV” will fade in to obscurity and everything will just become “TV” again. The result? UK consumers will end up with the richest choice of platforms and services in the world, powered by the marriage of commercial and public service models, the diversity of transmission technologies, the excellence of UK programming and the creativity of UK entrepreneurs. A pipe dream maybe, but one well worth fighting for.

• Huggers: Canvas Ain’t No Marsupial, But Viewers Still Want Kangaroo
• Updated: Sky Slams BBC’s Canvas As Anti-Competitive, Partners Respond
• BBC’s Project Canvas Consultation Kicks Off; Paid-For Services Possible