Europe’s music biz will reach a digital tipping point in 2013, when the majority of sales (53 percent) will be from online, mobile and ringtones for the first time - but overall sales will still be nearly half what they were in 2001,  according to a new Forrester report.

Digital share of 57 percent by 2014 will be worth €4 billion - and, though the forecast says new models like subscription-music bundles and social media licensing won’t be lucrative in the short term, they will generate over a quarter of that income, at €1.2 billion, proving it’s not all about pay-per-track.

Social music sites will see audiences double to 78 million and will pay out €392 million for use of music by 2014, and they’re more likely than lawyers to discourage illegal downloading because they can offer tunes free to users, the report says.

But while social media licensing will pull in younger users, these sites’ struggle to make their own money means labels should also distribute tracks through unlimited-download subscriptions to target mainstream consumers. Such services are increasingly being offered by ISPs like Denmark’s TDC, mobile carriers like Orange and vendors like Omnifone.

—Boom days are over: Though digital will make up for slowing CD sales, even digital sales will slow in 2014 “due to the maturation of the mobile and online paid download markets”

—Tough times for the big guys:  iTunes Music Store will suffer from being tied to slowing iPod sales; DRM-free and the lack of a subscription model won’t be enough to take it mainstream: “Europe doesn’t need any more $0.99 download stores; it already has the best part of 300.” “Strong editorial and discovery alone will not save Napster (NSDQ: NAPS) or Rhapsody. To survive, they must abandon rental in favor of prepaid unlimited MP3s.”