The music industry has got to be prepared to give music away for free, according to analysts Screen Digest. In a study of 27 countries including the UK, US and western Europe, Screen Digest predicts mobile music sales will double from €1.6 billion (£1.26 billion) this year to €3.2 billion (£2.52 billion) in 2012.

But full-track downloads will only make up half of that, with the rest still coming from things like ringtones. The report warns “paying for music is progressively becoming a niche activity as the value of recorded music is already in steep, possibly terminal, decline”. Mobile music subscription services like Nokia’s Comes With Music will be worth €928 million (£731 million) by 2012, it is predicted - almost double that of “al a carte” full track downloads on €508 million (£408 million). But the report says it is “almost impossible” to compete with Apple’s iTunes - a service they say is only “around break even” anyway - and if there is to be competition, the wholesale price of tracks must come down considerably. Release.

Previous reports painted a similarly optimistic picture, such as this from e-Marketer which put the 2012 mobile music revenue figure at $1.4 billion (£850,000) for the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain alone. A dose of perspective was given back in April by a survey from Jupiter Research which found that two thirds of 1,800 American’s polled were simply not interested in listening to music on their mobiles.

• Optimistic Forecast For European Mobile Music Revenue
• Most Adults Don’t Want Mobile Music - Research