UK entertainment and media revenue will drop seven percent to to $85 billion (£52.1 billion) - and may not return to 2008 levels until 2013, according to a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers. If the industry can hold on that long, the Global Entertainment and Media Outlook report says consumer spend will drive overall UK revenue up to $98 billion (£60.1 billion) in 2013, just behind Germany which PwC expects to experience a rise to $99 billion (£60.7 billion) in the same period.

The range of estimates on when the recession will ease and media and entertainment companies will return to growth range from the very optimistic—try next month—to cautiously optimistic to the realistic. But what no one will disagree with is PwC’s assertion that this recession is changing the media landscape. Plus the report’s author, PwC’s head of entertainment & media Phil Stokes, highlights the problem perhaps best illustrated by the plight of newspapers: “The increase in online elements is not compensating for declines elsewhere.”

—Digital future: The report says the recession will fundamentally and permanently shift revenue patterns towards digital. Stokes says: “Although we expect a rebound beginning in 2010, internet access, internet advertising, TV subscriptions and license fees, filmed entertainment and video games will be the only segments that will be larger in 2013 than in 2008.”  He adds that “a slowing economy will accelerate the migration to digital technologies among both providers and consumers of content”.

—Broadband growth: One thing is certain: there won’t be any slowdown in broadband subscriptions. PwC reckons the UK fixed line and mobile broadband market will grow at a compound annual rate of seven percent from 2009 to 2013—an overall 40 percent rise from $10.3 billion (£6.3 billion) currently to $14.4 billion (£8.8 billion).

For PwC’s US and rest of world figures, see Rafat’s post on our sister site paidContent.org.

(Photo: Nick Farnhill, some rights reserved)

• Analysts’ Consensus: 2009 Online Ad Spend Will Grow 3.94 Percent