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Recession Will Accelerate Shift To Online Advertising: Analysts

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Online advertising spend growth will keep slowing, but the recession will accelerate the shift from print and TV to online in western Europe, according to new figures from Forrester Research. As we reported last week, Forrester predicts online ad spend will grow by 10 percent this year, but the full report puts the annual growth rate at nine percent until 2013—a downward revision from Forrester’s earlier prediction of 13 per cent annually until 2012. But the report says the recession could have a positive impact on digital revenues: “Although the recession will cause online ad spending to grow more slowly than we had previously forecast, it will actually increase the internet’s share of total ad spending.

SEE ALSO: European Online Ad Spend To Grow 10 Percent In 2009: Analyst

Forrester had put online’s total share of the European ad market at 12.6 percent by 2012, but thanks to the downturn it’s upped that figure to 14.8 percent by 2012 and 15.1 by 2013. It’s an optimistic forecast: for example, Enders predicted online growth of 2.1 percent for 2009 percent rising to 12.5 percent in 2012. Perhaps this will go some way towards persuading publishers, marketers and CEOs that the sky is not falling on on the digital economy.More after the jump…

Paid search will fare best: The online ad sector you can trust the most is paid search, the report says, which accounted for 49 percent of European online ad spend in 2008 and will grow faster than any other sector. “Over the past four years, the annual growth rate of European online ad spending has declined significantly, paid search has continually taken share from display advertising and online classifieds…As the recession bites and marketers look for results, search will suffer least.”

Display will be worst hit: Advertisers told Forrester’s researchers that online display ads is the area they are most keen to cut back on—though the report doesn’t think the segment will be as badly hit as it was in the last recession in 2001 as ad prices are not as inflated as they were then. So that means four percent growth in display this year, rising to 10 percent in 2013.

UK leads the way: The main countries in terms of online ad spend, the UK, Germany and France, represent 66 percent of European online ad spend and will continue to dominate for the next four years despite rapid growth in smaller “early adopter” nations like the Nethderlands and the Scandinavian countries. The report says this is down to advertisers giving a “disproportionate share of spending to the largest markets”, with the UK alone receiving €3.09 billion (£2.69 billion) in 2008, a third of the European total. Last year Germany attracted €2.13 billion (£1.85 billion) and France €1.15 billion (£1 billion).

Feb 10, 2009 6:29 AM ET

Posted In: Advertising, Countries, Europe, Scandinavia, Holland, Spain, Germany, France

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